First Draft Pick: Best Player Available (Mostly...)

It more or less goes without saying that this is the most important offseason in the Memphis/Vancouver Grizzlies long, illustrious (14 years, 3 winnings seasons, 0 playoff victories) history. Along with smart free agent signings and good decisions on possible contract extensions, the upcoming draft will go a long way toward determining what kind of basketball team we are watching for the next few years. Unfortunately, this already-weak draft is now shaping up to be historically bad with potential lottery picks like Cole Aldrich, Willie Warren, Greg Monroe, Al-Farouq Aminu, Evan Turner and Ed Davis deciding to return to school for at last one more season. These decisions likely will not affect what the Grizzlies were looking at with their first pick, it will make the pickings even slimmer at picks 27 and 35. Later on we'll get around to some of the possibilities at those picks, but today we will focus more on the Grizzlies first pick of the draft, the one which will hopefully bring back a major piece of the rebuilding puzzle.

After losing a coin flip with the Timberwolves, Memphis now has the 6 seed for the draft lottery, with 75 ping pong balls out of 1,000. The Grizzlies have seven potential drafting slots (1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9) with a 7.5% chance of receiving the #1 overall pick. In this year's draft, there is an incredibly clear top two in Blake Griffin and Ricky Rubio (assuming Rubio comes out this year) and there is a definite drop-off following those two. Looking at the season Griffin had this year in college and the fact that he plays a position (PF), and plays it exactly the way Memphis needs a PF to play it, I'm going to go ahead and say that for Memphis this is a one man draft. Griffin should be the absolute no-doubt, sure-fire draft pick if the Grizzlies 7.5% chance comes through and they win the lottery. Griffin and Rubio are so far above the rest of the prospects that in my mind, Tier 1 consists of Griffin by himself and Tier 2 consists of Rubio by himself. What we are going to try to figure out, in this post and a series of other ones, is who belongs in the Tier 3 and what the ranking of players should be in that group.

More than anything else, the Grizzlies should be focused on bringing in the best player available with their draft spot. There are enough needs on this team that almost anyone drafted will be able to help out. The key for the organization is to figure out who they think is the best player and go after that guy, it's as simple as that. Don't pick Jordan Hill just because he's a power forward or Brandon Jennings because he's a point guard or James Harden because he can slash to the basket. If you think Hill or Jennings or Harden is the best player, and you have well thought-out and researched reasons why, then go ahead and take him, but don't force a pick. Anyway, let's get on to the players that for right now make up my personal Tier 3, and then we'll look at each player separately and hopefully come to some kind of a consensus about where the Grizzlies should be looking with their first pick. Players can always be added to or taken away from this list in the future.

In alphabetical order, with extremely short notes:

DeJuan Blair, PF: Not many people would have him this high but I'm really high on him, insane rebounding stats in college, physical power forward who will be very successful in the NBA

Earl Clark, SF/PF: Incredibly versatile, someone else who can step right into a backup SF role

Stephen Curry, PG/SG: Can play point or shooting guard, best pure shooter in the draft--already has NBA three-point range

Demar Derozan, SG/SF: Lots of potential, can step right into the back-up SF spot

Tyreke Evans, PG/SG: Can play on or off the ball, extremely quick driving the ball to the basket

James Harden, SG: First team All-American, maybe the best slasher in the draft

Gerald Henderson, SG: Impressive season at Duke this year, not sure how well he would fit with the Grizzlies

Jordan Hill, PF: Fills a need at power forward, seems to get by more on athleticism than anything else

Brandon Jennings, PG: Not really sure what to make of his year in Italy, big-time prospect last year coming out of high school

Hasheem Thabeet, C: 7'3'', possibly the best defender in college basketball last year 

Grizz News: Mayo Named Western Conference Rookie of the Month for April

The 3rd pick of the 2008 NBA Draft capped off a remarkable rookie season with another accolade.  Per the Grizzlies team site...

"For the second time this season, Memphis Grizzlies guard O.J. Mayo was named the NBA’s T-Mobile Western Conference Rookie of the Month (April, October/November), the NBA announced today."

 

After seeing his numbers tail off in the month of March (averaging 14.7 points and 2.3 rebound per game) Mayo bounced back to post a line of 20.3/3.3/3.8 while shooting 41.7% from deep in April.  The concerns of those who thought he might finally be beginning to wear down as the season came to an end got a pleasant surprise as he helped lead the Grizzlies to  a 5-4 record in the month, their only winning month of the year.   

Offseason Preview: Salaries

Before getting into some of the ways that the Grizzlies can improve this offseason, it's good to take a look at what the Grizz are dealing with and the kind of flexibility they will have during these next two offseasons which will shape the team for the forseeable future. In order to delve into this, first we will look at the salary situation for the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 seasons and see what we have to work with. All salary information comes from Hoops Hype.

2009-2010 Season  

1. Darko Milicic    $ 7,500,000
   
2. Marko Jaric     $ 7,100,000
   
3. OJ Mayo          $ 4,165,560
   
4. Greg Buckner    $ 4, 018,518
   
5. Mike Conley      $ 3,883,800
   
6. Rudy Gay          $ 3,280,996
   
7. Marc Gasol         $ 3,240,000
   
8. Hakim Warrick $ 3,021,838 (Qualifying Offer)
   
9. Darrell Arthur    $ 1,050,480
   

Total $ 37,261,192

Notes: The Grizzlies are locked into 9 players for next year, barring trades, which amount to an approximated total of $37,261,192. This is subject to change, depending on two main things: whether Hakim Warrick gets the qualifying offer or gets an extension, and whether Rudy Gay signs a long-term extension this offseason. Gay could shoot up to somewhere in the vicinity of $10 mil for next year. Adding in the three draft picks (6ish, 27, 35), which should add up to something around $4,500,000, and the salary for these 12 players could be something like 51 or 52 million. With a cap which should come down to around 57.3 million, that leaves around 5 or 6 million for 2 more roster spots, which hopefully could be filled by productive veteran/leader-types if possible. 

For the 2010-2011 season, Darko comes off the books, and potentially Warrick as well, but otherwise the contract situation looks very similar. Given an extension for Gay and possible extensions for Warrick and/or Conley and most likely another fairly high draft pick, the Grizz could be a good amount below the cap during that offseason, although this number will depend on potential signings this offseason.

A core group of Gay/Mayo/Gasol/Conley/top 5 pick in '09/top 10 pick in'10 with bench options like Warrick and Arthur and #18 pick in '09 is a fairly exciting young group to build around. With some smart drafting the next couple drafts and a couple solid veteran signings during the next two offseasons, this team could absolutely be a playoff team in a couple years, and hopefully a rising playoff team. In some later posts we'll take a look at how to potentially accomplish these goals of smart drafting/smart signings and take this team to a playoff level sooner rather than later.